FUTURES POSITION MANAGEMENT
Informational tool only — not betting, financial, or legal advice. Market outcomes remain uncertain; no result is a guarantee.
Futures Hedge Calculator
Compare selling now, full-hedging, and a modeled hold value.
Highest estimated outcome in this model: Hold. Hold is modeled and uncertain; sell and hedge depend on executable offers and available prices.
Worked-example rounded modeled hold value (nearest dollar): $2,759.
Calculations are illustrative only and do not guarantee outcomes or constitute betting advice.
WORKED EXAMPLE
With a remaining payout of $10,000, a $2,400 sell offer, a 10% seller fee, ticket odds of +250, and opposite odds of −300: net sell is $2,160; full-hedge locked value is $2,500; and modeled hold value is $2,758.62 (displayed as $2,759 when rounded). In this model, the hold value is about $258.62 above the hedge lock.
Net sell proceeds equal the offer multiplied by one minus the seller fee. For hold value, each American price becomes an implied probability, then the two probabilities are normalized to remove the two-sided market’s vig. The resulting fair ticket probability is multiplied by the remaining gross payout. For a full hedge, the opposite American odds become decimal odds; divide the remaining payout by that decimal price to estimate the opposite-side stake, then subtract that stake from the payout.
SELL = offer × (1 − fee). HOLD = gross payout × de-vigged ticket probability. HEDGE LOCK = gross payout − (gross payout ÷ opposite decimal odds).
A sell is an exit price offered by a buyer, less marketplace fees. A full hedge converts one market price into a theoretical offsetting stake, subject to available limits and execution. Hold value is a probability-weighted model, not cash in hand. Differences appear when the resale market, sportsbook price, fee, market liquidity, or the market’s own probability assessment do not line up.
This tool does not know whether a sell offer is real, whether it can close, current marketplace terms, sportsbook limits, odds movement, tax treatment, settlement rules, account restrictions, market liquidity, or your own risk tolerance. It does not predict an outcome. Confirm all executable prices and terms before acting.
The probability method uses the two current American prices supplied by the user, converts each to implied probability, and normalizes the pair to remove their combined overround. PropSwap currently advertises a 10% seller fee; verify the current fee before using an offer.
For adults of legal age only where applicable. FuturesDesk is an informational sports-market resource; this calculator does not recommend specific wagers or provide individualized betting, financial, legal, or tax advice; no outcomes are guaranteed. If gambling is causing harm, seek help through local responsible-gambling resources.
